Reilly Opelka vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Who has the edge in recent second serve performance? Opelka has been more successful recently, winning 48.76% of points compared to Medvedev’s 43.51%, which is significant for match predictions.
• Analyzing return game stats, Medvedev's recent form shows a 45.85% win rate on opponents' second serve points, while Opelka stands at 39.72%. Additionally, Medvedev leads with 25.24% on first serve returns versus Opelka's 18.35%.
• Under pressure, Opelka saves 64.68% of breakpoints, outperforming Medvedev’s 57.6%, a useful metric for in-game betting predictions.
• In the last year, Medvedev boasts a higher match win percentage of 59.02% compared to Opelka's 51.79%, offering a broader head-to-head prediction framework.
• Considering their preferred playing surfaces, Opelka excels on indoor hard courts with a 67% win rate, while Medvedev shines on hard courts, winning 75% of his matches.
• Medvedev has been slightly more successful on the Main tour over the past year, winning 68.18% of matches, compared to Opelka's 54.84%.
• In direct head-to-head encounters, Medvedev leads with four wins to Opelka’s two, although Opelka won their most recent match on grass at the Libema Open.
• In tight tiebreak situations, Opelka holds a slight edge, winning four out of seven against Medvedev.
• Who faces tougher competition? Medvedev has consistently faced higher-ranked opponents with an average rank of 54.13, compared to Opelka's 100.95 over the past 12 months.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Opelka shows a stronger performance, winning 61% of such sets in the last year, whereas Medvedev won 53%.
• In terms of breaking serve, Medvedev demonstrates superior breakpoint conversion recently, achieving a 30.52% success rate against Opelka’s 23.81%.

Editorial Prediction (July 23, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing recent performances and head-to-head statistics paints a competitive picture between Reilly Opelka and Daniil Medvedev. Although Opelka has shown prowess in saving breakpoints and playing under pressure, Medvedev displays strength in return games, boasting higher success rates on both first and second serve returns.

Their history of tightly contested matches, often culminating in tiebreaks, emphasizes Opelka's slight dominance in clutch moments. However, Medvedev's higher overall win percentage and consistent performance against stronger opponents suggest a competitive edge.

Given Medvedev's more favorable breakpoint conversion and head-to-head track record, coupled with a superior win percentage across competitions, Medvedev emerges as the likely winner for this upcoming match.